Chairman's Message - 2002 Annual Report
![]() Why is today a great time to Invest? The year 2002 will go down in history as another "annus horribilis" for the stock market and hence mutual fund unit prices. The year was highlighted by the fallout from the extreme greed and excesses developed during the bull market, which ended in March 2000. Investors' moods have swung from dizzying optimism to now abject pessimism. Excerpts from The Globe and Mail on January 29, 2003, summarize very well the sentiment of the day:
This negative sentiment superimposed against the background of corporate malfeasance, accounting malpractice, contaminated brokerage reports, fraudulent CEOs and ineffective and conflicted boards of directors, has led to a total breakdown of trust and confidence by investors. Paradoxically, for all of the above issues we are now being presented with a purged environment for investing: rogue CEOs are being jailed and replaced; accounting firms are being much more stringent and conservative; brokerage houses are separating their research departments from their investment banking departments; corporate governance is under heavy scrutiny and balance sheets are being scrubbed. We can therefore be a lot more confident today that what we see is what we get: a pre-condition for the rebuilding of trust and confidence. This crisis of confidence and trust is presenting long-term investors with an attractive opportunity to buy some of the best businesses available at attractive prices. History is replete with lessons underscoring the wisdom of: being fully invested in the midst of crises; that being greedy when everybody is fearful will be profitable; that being excited when everybody is bored will pay off; that being optimistic when everybody is pessimistic will eventually be rewarding. For us, the portfolio management team at AIC, we are excited about the prospects for the companies that populate all our portfolios. We continuously comb through each and every business to make sure that they meet our high standards for continued inclusion in our portfolios. We continue to be fully cognizant of our responsibility to you, our unitholders, that you are looking to us to:
Given the low level of trust and confidence that is pervasive, our highest priority must be to reinforce your trust and confidence in us. In that regard, there are three qualities that we must demonstrate to you, our unitholders:
According to Warren Buffett: "If my universe of business possibilities were limited, say, to private companies in Omaha, I would, first, try to assess the long-term economic characteristics of each business; second, assess the quality of the people in charge of running it; and, third, try to buy into a few of the best operations at a sensible price. I certainly would not wish to own an equal part of every business in town. Why, then, should Berkshire take a different tack when dealing with a larger universe of public companies?" According to John Maynard Keynes: "As time goes on, I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes. It is a mistake to think that one limits one's risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence. One's knowledge and experience are definitely limited and there are seldom more than two or three enterprises at any given time in which I personally feel myself entitled to put FULL confidence." The methodology practiced by both Mr. Buffett and Mr. Keynes is common to most successful businesspeople/investors, from the Forbes' 500 wealthiest individuals to the wealthiest person in your community. It is therefore the formula that has the best lineage of:
It is for this reason that at AIC, we manage all your Funds using these principles. Our portfolio managers and analysts therefore spend their time assessing: (1) the long-term characteristics of each business; (2) the quality of the people in charge of running it; and (3) trying to buy into a few of the best operations at a sensible price. The result of our work is the collection of the best businesses in each AIC Fund. You be the judge (by reviewing our portfolios) in determining whether or not we have been successful at executing the success principles in our Funds. In conclusion, our philosophy makes us transparent. Consistency of Behaviour"Judge your friends over a full cycle of time, through thick and thin." It is a human frailty to succumb to fear and greed, especially when investing. In good times, the risk is that one's judgment will be clouded by greed. Conversely, in bad times one is more apt to succumb to fear and behave accordingly. In both cases, the result will be a destruction of wealth. The defence against these normal human frailties is to have clearly defined principles, then stick to them dogmatically. Hence, at AIC, we have only one Philosophy that governs our investment behaviour with every Portfolio. The best way to demonstrate AIC's consistency of behaviour is to revisit our messages to unitholders dating back to 1989. In this regard unitholders are welcome to request a copy of our booklet, titled "Messages." A few excerpts from this booklet will illustrate our attitude and behaviour when faced with extreme conditions. June 30, 1990 Our behaviour: "History has shown that: the Contrarian attitude has always paid off over time. That being fully invested in the midst of crisis will pay off. That being optimistic and patient will eventually be rewarding. We are not about to defy History." December 31, 1994 Our behaviour: "Long-term investment success is ultimately determined by the ability to ignore external 'noises' and concentrate on the issue of buying good businesses. All of the AIC Funds adhere to this fundamental principle and we view our portfolios as providing our investors with the benefit of ownership in a collection of great businesses. As business owners, our strategy does not vary with market conditions our approach when faced with the volatile markets of the past year was identical to our approach in 1993 when markets were more favourable." December 31, 1997 Our behaviour: "Outstanding as 1997 was, it was against the backdrop of roaring North American stock markets, and any investor can realize large returns in a bull market. In fact, the more aggressive you are in a bull market, the more brilliant your results will be. This 'carnival atmosphere' made us nervous given our responsibilities to preserve capital, and then to grow it in a tax-efficient manner. In this regard, as I mentioned in our Semi-Annual Report (1997) we allowed our cash positions to build; rising to 40% in AIC Value Fund, and close to 30% in AIC Advantage Fund II. Our huge cash reserves were not indicative of us trying to 'time' the market, but of our discomfort with the excessive prices that were prevailing. Our patience was rewarded during the fourth quarter of 1997, and the first month of 1998 when the 'Asian Flu' began to contaminate the global markets and investors/speculators began selling. During that period we were aggressively buying as prices came within our 'buy' range." December 31, 1999 Our behaviour: "In conclusion, investing is all about putting out money today to get more money back in the future. In today's environment we would rather put money into TD Bank trading at a P/E ratio of 14.5 implying that at today's level of earnings, we would get our money back in 14.5 years, versus JDS Uniphase with a P/E ratio of 200, implying it would take 200 years to get our initial investment back. We continue to be disciplined (despite the extremely high emotional atmosphere now prevailing in the market) and judicious in the application of our investment philosophy to ensure that we walk the straight and narrow. We are confident that over time owning businesses for the long run, purchased at reasonable prices and in strong industries, will reward Investors by:
In conclusion, our philosophy is the fuel for our consistent behaviour over time. Walk the Talk This was the case in September 1999 when we had the opportunity to buy additional shares of Mackenzie Financial. As we had already accumulated the permitted maximum 20% in the two Advantage Funds, we bought, for our own corporate account, an additional 5% of Mackenzie for approximately $100 million. In January 2001, when Investors Group made a take-over bid for Mackenzie, we tendered our shares, netting Advantage Fund unitholders nearly $400 million. The fact that we are prepared to invest our own money should give unitholders confidence in our capabilities. Our confidence in "walking the talk" is fueled by our Investment Philosophy. Summarizing, unitholders of the AIC Funds should have the utmost confidence in us because of our history of:
Thank you and best wishes in your investing. Michael A. Lee-Chin
Chairman's Message - 2002 Semi-Annual Report AIC Names New Chief Investment Officer. Read press release The first half of 2002 has been punctuated by declining profits, corporate scandals, accounting shenanigans, fraud and poor corporate governance resulting in a loss of confidence and trust by the investing public, and a stock market that seemingly has no bottom. Investors today need more than ever a middle C, a plumb line, a decision-making framework, a value system/philosophy so as to minimize chaotic behaviour and the destruction of their capital. In light of this environment, I thought it would be constructive to get the perspective of Mr. Warren Buffett, Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and America's most successful investor. Here is an excerpt from the 2001 Berkshire Hathaway annual report: Berkshire HathawayBerkshire's loss in net worth during 2001 was US$3.77 billion, which decreased the per-share book value of both our Class A and Class B stock by 6.2%. Over the past 37 years (that is, since present management took over) per-share book value has grown from US$19 to US$37,920, a rate of 22.6% compounded annually. Two years ago, reporting on 1999, I said that we had experienced the worst absolute and relative performance in our history. I added that "relative results are what concerns us", a viewpoint I have had since forming my first investment partnership on May 5, 1956. Meeting with my seven founding limited partners that evening, I gave them a short paper entitled "The Ground Rules" that included the sentence: Whether we do a good job or a poor job is to be measured against the general experience in securities." We initially used the Dow Jones industrial as our benchmark, but shifted to the S&P 500 when that index became widely used. Some people disagree with our focus on relative figures, arguing that "you can't eat relative performance." But if you expect - as Charlie Munger, Berkshire's Vice Chairman, and I do - that owning the S&P 500 will produce reasonably satisfactory results over time, it follows that, for long-term investors, gaining small advantages annually must prove rewarding. Just as you can eat well throughout the year if you own a profitable, but highly seasonal business such as See's (which loses considerable money during the summer months) so too, can you regularly feast on investment returns that beat the averages, however variable the absolute numbers may be. Additionally, I will keep well over 99% of my net-worth in Berkshire. My wife and I have never sold a share nor do we intend to. Notwithstanding reporting a "loss in net worth during 2001" and the worst relative and absolute underperformance in Berkshire's history during 1999, Mr. Buffett is still resolute about holding his shares of Berkshire. Why? "We have as fine an array of operating managers as exists at any company. In large part, moreover they are running businesses with economic characteristics ranging from good to superb. The ability, energy and loyalty of these managers, are simply extraordinary." Similarly, we at AIC are not about to abandon the Investment Principles that have guided us through previous uncertain periods of 1987, 1990, 1994 and 1998. Given that we have built our portfolios on a fine array of strong companies that are responding to current market conditions, we are confident that our investee companies will emerge even stronger from this temporary transition. The technology bubble of the late 1990s reminds us that in a bloating market it is very difficult to differentiate and distinguish between good, bad, or indifferent. In fact, in that environment, reckless and heroic behaviour is often rewarded. The landscape is today littered with examples of CEOs confusing brilliance with a rising tide. Witness the likes of: Enron, WorldCom, Tyco, Global Crossing, Vivendi, etc. Conversely, when the tide goes out we see those who are naked (witness the above list) and those who are clothed. Although painful to go through, this is the environment that permits strong businesses to truly distinguish themselves. An excerpt from Merrill Lynch's 2001 annual report will highlight this point: Merrill LynchAs 2001 progressed, we increasingly came to believe that while long-term growth drivers remained in place for our industry on a global basis, the rate of growth in 1999 and 2000 was an aberration, rather than a sustainable trend - not only for Merrill Lynch, but the entire industry. As the environment continued to weaken during 2001, we accelerated actions to improve profitability, and took decisive steps to reduce expenses and more sharply focus all of our business to take maximum advantage of the best opportunities for growth. This is the environment that permits great businesses to become Greater. This is also the environment that permits great investors to become Greater. This is certainly not the environment to be skittish and uncommitted. This is a crisis environment that is giving AIC unitholders the opportunity to prosper over the long term. Our commitment to you, our unitholdersThroughout the years (good and bad), I have implored you not to judge us by our short-term performance, but to measure us by our behaviour. Over the long term, if our behaviour is consistent, and we "don't let emotions corrode our sound intellectual framework", then the natural by-products are:
At AIC, we are most proud of our record of being disciplined towards our Mantra and philosophy: Summarized in "Buy. Hold. And Prosper." We are also aware that unitholders who invested in AIC Funds over these past four years have not "prospered". My suggestion to all unitholders is the following: If you are confident in companies that underpin your Funds, then now is a great time to "dollar cost average", thereby lowering your average cost, and simultaneously capitalizing on the prevailing opportunity presented by this crisis. This is the right thing to do. In summary, we continue to be resolute in our belief that wealth is created by owning a few great businesses (domiciled in strong industries), which we intend to hold for the long run. We continue to be judicious in owning businesses that fit our stringent criteria. We continue to work assiduously to assure ourselves that management is being smart and creative, energetic, hands-on, prudent and honest thereby building companies that are Entrepreneurial, Competitive and Hardworking. We are confident that those unitholders who "stay the course" will over time be well rewarded; history proves that this has always happened. All the best. Michael A. Lee-Chin Chairman & Chief Executive Officer AIC Limited |
Portfolio Team |